🔗 Share this article

Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward script. It often functions as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your squad in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence receives the prize. In practice, it creates an annual argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or merely the biggest upset.

However the latest field is profoundly different. The list of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been messy, with reigning conference winners fading and longtime strugglers improving in unison. Under an normal season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a chaotic and thrilling year, he's facing multiple other outstanding candidates.

This is how the ideal ballot ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper system, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's prolonged excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to create big plays from nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost each decision – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the building with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a typical season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But this isn't a normal year!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. But Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which was not a guarantee following his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect staff blend of youth and experience, Coen trusted first-timers. From the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason collapse had the team stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. He receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller could have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just a single spot ahead of peers.

Still