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Residents of the Big Apple will learn the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who governs and defends the country's largest city at a time when Donald Trump has vowed to send armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has matched two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against one another. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by accusations of racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have major implications for how the Democratic party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of wealthy contributors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the former longshot who defeated his opponent in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and promised to halt rent increases for about two million New Yorkers, has led his rival by significant margins across all surveys conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was widely condemned as bigoted after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a particularly ugly end to an race that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, floundering in its response to the former president's power moves, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his bid will be compelled to address a message that has resonated with Americans' anger at inequality, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about affordability, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not witnessed since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

However, if Cuomo, who had been expected to win easily in the June primary, achieve a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could reinforce national Democrats' current model of cautious, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has infuriated grassroots members. A NYC defeat of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the best plan is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in the city appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that his backers are much more excited about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's engaging content on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for New York and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the city has attracted an army of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them young or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

Yet, Cuomo, 67, continues to fight. And with the risks stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might resonate, the independent has concentrated on targeting Mamdani directly. He has labelled Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on conservative media for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Political Landscape

The line of attack echoes much of what Trump, who has deployed the national guard to the capital and threatened to do the same to NYC, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to elect Cuomo elected, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the his team, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had heard of him, and in reality, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, eased his way into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held every edge. The classic establishment figure, he had married a political dynasty member and worked in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his parent, the former governor, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, the candidate has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after video emerged suggesting him implying the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the clip, recorded at a DSA gathering in recent years. Mamdani, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the nation is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, the candidate appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his response to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani responded to Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Speaking to the actions of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd